Written By Mauricio Segura // Photo: Golden Bay Times Graphics Dept.
OCT 6, 2025
Even after a lopsided 4–1 defeat at BC Place, the San Jose Earthquakes’ postseason dreams have not yet died. Heading into the final weekend of the regular season, the Quakes remain alive, if only just, in the Western Conference’s chaotic playoff picture.
The road trip to Vancouver offered little mercy. The Whitecaps struck early and often, turning what might have been a tight contest into a downhill slide. But the scoreline belies the more compelling subplot: San Jose’s ability to stay mathematically alive for one more shot at the postseason.
Before the match, San Jose stood at 38 points, sitting in 11th place in the Western Conference. Victory over Austin FC in their season finale is now the nonnegotiable condition for survival. Even then, the Quakes must rely on favorable results from other clubs jockeying for the wild-card and play-in spots. A single misstep by any of those teams could open a crack wide enough for the Quakes to slip through.
A glance at the playoff probabilities confirms how narrow that path is. Modeling projections still show nonzero odds for San Jose’s qualification if they win out, but also illustrate how many dominoes must fall their way. The margins have thinned to a razor’s edge, and there is no room for error.
What compounds San Jose’s plight is the league’s structure itself. The MLS postseason format means that even in a crowded wild-card scramble, each team’s fate is not purely self-determined but intertwined with several others. A team can win and still be eliminated, or lose and survive, depending on how the rest of the table shakes out. That makes San Jose’s remaining task more puzzle than match.
Still, there is some context to draw encouragement from. This team has already shown flashes this season in late-game scoring, key individual performances, and resilience in tighter contests. Beau Leroux’s long-range strike in the closing minutes against Vancouver showed confidence even when the outcome was already sealed. Meanwhile, Cristian Espinoza continues to lead the team in key passes, underscoring his creative influence when the margins are slim.
But the Quakes’ defensive issues are glaring. Conceding four goals in a must-win scenario is not just a blow to morale; it signals that their back line may need drastic tightening if they are to storm into the postseason. ESPN’s recent power rankings dropped San Jose to near the bottom of the conference, describing their playoff hopes as “a very faint glimmer.” That may be harsh, but it captures how fragile the situation has become.
Looking ahead, the Quakes’ final home match against Austin looms as a do-or-die moment. With everything on the line, PayPal Park must become a fortress. The crowd, energy, substitutions, and even the weather could all play outsized roles in determining the outcome. And yet, San Jose cannot control the fates of Colorado, Dallas, or Salt Lake. Their destiny rests partly in the hands of others.
Still, what remains is that flicker of possibility. Sometimes in sports, the most compelling narratives are those written in the margins, the teams that refuse to quit until the final whistle. San Jose is not yet finished. They have one game and one fragile path. The upcoming finale is no longer about pride. It is all or nothing, and if their fans rally and their players summon one last push, this underdog story could still find its spark.
The Quakes may be facing the narrowest of windows, but in a league built on unpredictability, even that is enough.
